Space activities as part of the foresight report - Part 1

Space activities are becoming increasingly important in everyday services and also in military activities. Space-based information and services will become increasingly integrated and deeper into society's entire infrastructure.

We will publish the section on space activities of the report in two parts on the SpaceFinland website. In this first part, the themes will be the integration of space services into society, the exploration race and the double transformation that has begun in the field of space actors.

The goal of the Report is to support the strategic decision-making of the Government and all central government organisations. In November 2024 Part 1 of the Government Report on the Future was published (Publications of the Finnish Government 2024:54). It provides shared information on foresight and the operating environments produced in cross-administrative cooperation between all ministries. 

Information and services from space will be integrated more extensively and deeply into society's entire infrastructure. They provide an opportunity to enhance and streamline society's functions and enable the introduction of entirely new applications. In a digitalising society, time and location data, observation of the ground and atmosphere, and data connections available everywhere are the grounds on which applications in different sectors are based. Space services will also play an increasingly important role in security and defence applications.

New globally scalable business models driving the transformation of the space economy, advances in technology and a reduction in the costs of space activities will strongly increase the number of state and private sector actors. At the same time, the escalating geopolitical situation, superpower competition and the dual use of space services in the civilian and defence sectors create competing groups. One of the most visible forms of superpower competition in space activities is exploration, where different groups seek to lead the way in exploration of the solar system. The objective of the activities is clearly to strengthen the political military position and the related technological know-how in relation to its competitors.

The new business models of the changing space economy will bring competitiveness to the sector and lower the introduction of new innovative solutions to the market. The utilisation of space services and information in increasingly new areas of application in society will enable more efficient and sustainable use of resources also on the ground. On the other hand, the strategic and military importance of space, geopolitical competition and the need for technological self-sufficiency put pressure on export restrictions between state groups. As the number of space activities and actors increases, the challenges of sustainable use of space and international agreement are also strongly emphasised. Congestion in the orbits used by satellites, an uncontrolled increase in the amount of space debris and inadequate international practices related to the launch of small satellites are threats that potentially reduce the quality and availability of space services.

Strong technological expertise and advanced digitalisation in society support the development of space activities and the utilisation of space services in Finland. However, the scarcity of state resources limits the construction of one's own space infrastructure. For this reason, Finland must continue to rely on close cooperation with the EU and other partners. 

In the future, the services provided by satellites will continuously provide better quality, real-time and more comprehensive information and enable their wider application. This will improve the optimisation of end-user resource use and operations. Space-based information and services provide an opportunity to enhance and streamline society's functions and enable the introduction of entirely new applications. More efficient operations and supplementing or replacing terrestrial infrastructure with satellite services will save construction costs and enable the cost-effective extension of services to sparsely populated areas. Space services add a new significant layer to Finland's security of supply culture to complement other technologies. A broad and insightful technological understanding strengthens Finland's opportunities to build sustainable comprehensive security that also covers sparsely populated areas regionally. As an operating environment, space provides a unique environment for research work in an ungravity condition. Natural resources from other celestial bodies, such as rare isotopes of elements, may also enable the introduction of new technologies in the Earth.

Integration of space services into society

Space activities play an increasingly important role in the functioning of our society and everyday life. The most important services available from space are positioning, telecommunications and remote sensing.

Even today, many of society's services rely on the uninterrupted functioning of satellite systems. Many functions that are important for the functioning of the digital society cease to function or function poorly without very accurate location or time data, usually obtained from satellites – they have become a significant part of the backbone of everyday basic functions. For example, managing the authorities' alerts, electricity networks, banking services and telecommunications networks need accurate location or time data of satellite positioning systems to function well. In addition, the number and capabilities of Earth observation satellite¬ systems have increased dramatically, enabling continuous data flow to monitor the environment and weather, to map natural resources, to monitor and anticipate accidents and, in particular, to meet the operational needs of the national and international security sector.

The prevention of collisions between satellites, the anticipation of the impacts of space weather and storms on transport, telecommunications and energy infrastructure, and the monitoring of the environment, climate and weather are increasingly reliant on space equipment and the automatic processing and utilisation of the data they produce.

Today, satellite observations are a necessary raw material for reliable weather forecasts. The interest and investments of both states and companies in space activities have grown strongly over the past decade. Public space activities focus on the development of both systems and universal services. At the same time, expanding private space activities are directed especially at telecommunications and remote sensing as well as the utilisation of measurement and observation data and services produced by space activities in terrestrial business.

In the future, space activities will be widely utilised in decision-making in different administrative branches and in the implementation of the Government Programme and other societal objectives. Space activities are also increasingly important for comprehensive security and security of supply. Space activities, such as spatial data and time signals, remote sensing and satellite telecommunications, have significant applications in official activities, such as environmental surveillance and the activities of security authorities, as well as in business, as enablers of various telecommunications and energy networks, trade, transport and services. (Space in our daily lives: the societal impact of space activities (AVARTAVA). Publications of the Government's analysis, assessment and research activities 2022:28.)

Finland's northern location brings many benefits to space activities. Due to its northern location, Finland has special expertise in Arctic issues, which can also be utilised from the perspectives of climate change, space weather, security and telecommunications connections. 

In the activities of the security authorities, satellite positioning systems for location data and remote sensing data have traditionally been utilised for space services to produce information on the terrestrial and marine environment for border and maritime surveillance and for rescue authorities for the management of emergencies. Due to the high costs, satellite communications services have been individual services and connections used for preparedness in marine areas.

However, satellite communications services are developing into multi-orbitar mega constellations in the future, which means that their operations and costs are better suited as an integral part of the daily activities of the security authorities. Building connections between satellites enables the transfer of data from one satellite to another, which improves the coverage and reliability of services, especially in areas where the terrestrial infrastructure is weak or non-existent. Similarly, connection speeds will increase when data transfer takes place between satellites without the need to transmit data through ground stations.

In addition, the use of satellite telecommunications connections and the development of functionality with terrestrial 5G and 6G mobile communications networks into a single service package operating on the same terminal device will significantly expand the operating conditions of authorities and other users in areas where terrestrial communications connections are missing or not available. Satellite connections can also be directly linked to the authorities' own secure network solutions, which will enable global connections to the data and systems needed in connection with official duties. Different space services will also become more closely integrated, creating entirely new opportunities for use and security services for the authorities. Satellite and terrestrial communications connections, location data and remote sensing data merge with actual and virtual other data as part of everyday official activities.

Exploration race

Competition between superpowers and emerging superpowers in space exploration has accelerated in recent years. In particular, the United States, China, Russia and India have set as their targets the pursuit of a leading position in research trips to the solar system that take place with manned spaceflight and with unmanned probes and robots. The general decrease in the prices of space technology and access to orbit has lowered the threshold for space activities. Manned flights to other planets are still difficult and cost-intensive projects, but due to competition between the great powers they are likely to take place within the next 10-20 years.
 
The clear goal of the great power struggle is to strengthen the political military position and the related technological know-how in relation to its competitors. Europe's position in manned flights is secondary, but in other explorations it remains strong thanks to the activities of the European Space Agency that are strategically (at least for the time being) rational. The race is currently focusing on returning to the Moon, moving from robot counters to actual manned hot trips and the establishment of more or less permanent bases on the Moon Chamber and orbit. The ARTEMIS Programme of the United States envisages several manned flights to the Moon in the next few years. In general, the Moon is seen especially as a stepping board for exploration trips to the rest of the solar system, in the first phase to planet Mars. An essential change in US activities is the increasing reliance on private companies, as new major research programmes targeting the Moon and other parts of our solar system will require additional resources. This may be an opportunity for European and Finnish companies to participate as subcontractors in the projects in question. This also requires diverse expertise in space research, in which many Finnish research institutes are highly valued internationally.
 
It is likely that one or more of the above-mentioned superpowers will carry out an occupied spaceflight in Mars before 2040 (the infrastructure located in the Moon can help). However, such projects are likely to remain individual demonstrations of power in competition between the superpowers, as is the case with Apollo flights. On the other hand, solar research using robotic probes can be expected to increase significantly with the development of space technology in general and launch vehicles in particular. Technological advances result in a reduction in the costs of unmanned operations, while the costs of manned flights remain high, especially due to the radiation conditions in outer space that pose challenges to humans. Extensive extraction of materials from space and other similar use of space can also be carried out with the help of automated robot systems. It is an open question whether there will be demand for material extraction in the next few decades. On the other hand, systems are needed to control the risk of collision caused by asteroids.
 
The position of Europe and, as a result, Finnish actors may develop positively, as the creation of robotic scanners and landings opens up new opportunities for participation for different types of small enterprises or organisations.
 

Double transformation of the space actor field

A double transformation has begun in the field of space actors: on the one hand, space economy factors significantly increase the number of state and private sector actors; on the other hand, the geopolitical situation, acquisitions and mergers drive actors into competing groups.

A large number of new space companies and new space states will be created in the field of actors. The transformation of the space economy is driven by new globally scalable business models created as small satellites and private launching services develop – these enable more affordable access to space. In this transformation, space sector actors, roles and ways of doing things will be reformed. New private service providers complement publicly funded and operating satellite systems. (See, for example, AVAUS - Dimensions and business of the new space operating environment. Publications of the Government's analysis, assessment and research activities 2020:8.) Reducing the investments required for building space systems and making the service provider field competitive will also make acquiring space capabilities available to smaller state actors.
 

Figure: Value of investments by space start-ups and number of contracts in Europe in 2014-2023, EUR million, number. Source: European Space Policy Institute (ESPI). (European Space Policy Institute: Space Venture Europe 2023.)

Competing groups will emerge in the field of actors among both state and private sector actors. The escalation of the geopolitical situation and competition between superpowers divide state actors into competing groups, which need to ensure their self-sufficient capacity to produce space services and information. The largest groups are currently built around the USA, China, Russia and the EU  (see, for example New historic high for government space spending mostly driven by defense expenditures - Euroconsult Group, merged with SpaceTec Partner to form Novaspace, euroconsult-ec.com), but new groups are being built and power relations are changing. New business models in the space economy and private sector risk financing create a large number of new companies with high growth potential for the sector. However, the market economy will also eliminate weak companies, larger companies will buy smaller ones, acquire technology expertise, and more established actors will merge to take over the market. National groupings support industry and research in their own region in order to safeguard self-sufficiency and to gain a technological advantage over competing groupings.

A service-based and needs-based operating model built in the space sector will create new application areas and technological innovations. The new business models of the changing space economy will bring competitiveness to the sector and lower the introduction of new innovative solutions to the market. The utilisation of space services and information in increasingly new areas of application in society will enable more efficient and sustainable use of resources also on the ground.

Competition between Government and private sector groups hampers cooperation. The strategic and military importance of space and the need for technological self-sufficiency create pressure for export restrictions between state groups. The distribution of the supply chains of services provided by the private sector across groups exposes the availability of services to the effects of geopolitical changes.

Ensuring supply chains motivates central Government actors to support actors in their own region and acquire control over their decision-making. In the scientific and research community, export restrictions on knowledge and expertise pose challenges to international cooperation and academic independence.

The growing number of space actors and competition between groups pose challenges to the sustainable use of space. Space traffic management, the limited number of radio frequencies available and the availability of suitable ground station locations and resources create an increasing need for international cooperation and regulation. Changes in the geopolitical situation and intersecting interests of actor groups make it more difficult to find common solutions. Congestion of orbits used by satellites, uncontrolled growth in the amount of space debris and poorly coordinated use of radio frequencies may potentially reduce the quality and availability of space services, and at worst, the construction of space services will be prevented in practice for decades.